Juli 2026
Change is Ahead
Over the coming weeks, the UK will have a new Prime Minister. Nearly all observers believe that Andy Burnham is likely to emerge as Sir Keir Starmer's successor, with the only remaining question being whether this happens through a leadership contest or by “coronation”. Given the scale of the domestic and international challenges facing the country, a swift transition could be in the national interest.
The next Prime Minister would have around three years until the next general election and would therefore need to hit the ground running. Successfully addressing the UK's economic, social and geopolitical challenges will be essential if the government is to prevent voters from drifting further towards the political fringes.
The recent Makerfield by-election suggested that Andy Burnham has the ability to appeal to a broad spectrum of voters. However, maintaining that support will depend on delivering results. Any new government would need to generate stronger economic growth while remaining fiscally prudent – a difficult balancing act at a time when increasing defence spending is becoming a strategic necessity.
From a business perspective, the key question is what a Burnham premiership could mean for the UK economy and, in particular, for the UK's relationship with the European Union.
Burnham is widely regarded as a pragmatist and has often argued for a closer relationship with the EU. While talk of rejoining the bloc remains speculative, a further deepening of the relationship would be welcomed by much of the business community. Reduced trade frictions, greater regulatory cooperation and stronger political dialogue could all help support investment and growth, which aligns closely with the Chamber's longstanding commitment to strengthening economic ties and promoting business opportunities on both sides of the Channel.
In this context, the postponement of the next UK-EU summit may prove beneficial. If there is a change in leadership, it makes sense for the new government to be in place before both sides agree on the next steps in deepening the relationship.
Even if the UK is soon to have its seventh Prime Minister in ten years, this transition would likely be smoother than many previous changes. Financial constraints and political realities remain largely unchanged, meaning that difficult trade-offs will persist regardless of who occupies Downing Street.
In the end, the differences between Burnham and Starmer on many policy issues may be smaller than some expect. The more significant distinction could be communication. Burnham is widely regarded as a strong communicator, and that skill may prove valuable in explaining the difficult choices that fiscal prudence, the need for economic reform and higher defence spending inevitably require. In the years ahead, effective communication could become almost as important as policy itself.
